goldprice.devAt the close of October 20, 2026, spot gold was $4,114 in US dollars per troy ounce. Applied to that price, past twelve-month moves give a middle outcome of $4,433, with one in ten runs below $3,657 and one in ten above $5,475.
What the table shows
The table applies gold’s past moves since 1996 to the latest close. It is a historical base rate for seeing how wide the moves in an ordinary year have been, not a forecast or investment advice.
What past moves would mean from the latest close
| To year end | Six months ahead | Twelve months ahead | |
|---|---|---|---|
| One in ten runs ended below this | $3,847 | $3,739 | $3,657 |
| One in four runs ended below this | $3,992 | $3,956 | $3,965 |
| Middle of all runs | $4,158 | $4,267 | $4,433 |
| One in four runs ended above this | $4,370 | $4,596 | $5,016 |
| One in ten runs ended above this | $4,573 | $4,892 | $5,475 |
| Share of runs that ended higher | 56.4% | 62.6% | 66% |
How we calculate the range
We measure the percentage change in every overlapping run with the same number of trading days as each horizon, including 7,712 twelve-month runs. We take the tenth, twenty-fifth, fiftieth, seventy-fifth and ninetieth percentiles of those changes and apply them to $4,114. The year-end column uses the 52 trading days remaining in the year.
The past does not repeat exactly, and overlapping runs are not independent observations. Rare shocks can fall outside the band: by definition, two in ten past runs ended outside the range bounded by the one-in-ten thresholds.
Recent and long-run volatility
Annualised volatility is 28.9% over the last year, compared with 16.7% across the full history. When the recent figure is higher than the long-run figure, wider moves have been more common recently; when it is lower, smaller moves have been more common. Neither figure sets a limit on future moves.
What moves gold prices
Gold prices respond to real interest rates and central-bank policy, the US dollar and central-bank gold buying. Demand for safety during stress, jewellery demand and investment demand also influence the price. Their relative importance changes with market conditions.
How this differs from a published forecast
Banks and research firms publish forecasts for different horizons, including year-end targets, quarterly averages and prices twelve months ahead, and revise them over time. This page does not reproduce those forecasts. A published forecast is one view; the table shows the spread of what has happened.
Rebuild the table with the API
Get daily closes from /v1/bars?symbol=XAU-USD-SPOT&interval=1d&from=...&to=..., calculate each overlapping run’s percentage change, then apply the same percentiles to the latest close.
Free includes 30 days of daily history and 5,000 requests a month. A year of daily history starts on Basic; the full history since 1996 used by this page starts on Plus.
curl "https://api.goldprice.dev/v1/bars?symbol=XAU-USD-SPOT&interval=1d&from=2026-09-23&to=2026-10-21"Gold over the last year, US dollars per troy ounce
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