Prediction Market View

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How this works

We ingest every active gold prediction market from Polymarket and Kalshi, extract the market-implied probability at each price threshold for each available expiry, and surface the percentile markers at the dates the markets actually price. Spot price updates live.

The gold dot at each expiry is the market-implied median, and the band around it covers p25 to p75 (the middle 50% of probability mass). The dot at “today” is the cone tip, where current uncertainty is zero because spot is known.

Between expiries we draw a straight line through the dots and fill the band linearly between them. This is a visual connector so the chart reads as a single shape instead of two floating markers, not a per-month forecast. The months in between have no markets behind them, and we never invent a distribution to fill the gap. To recover the strict per-expiry view, hit /v1/prediction-market-view directly.

FAQ

• What do these markers show?

  Each gold dot is a real Polymarket or Kalshi expiry. The dot is the market-implied median; the band shows the p25 to p75 range, and outer percentiles are available via the API. The band represents touch-market consensus across both upside and downside touch contracts at each expiry. The line and band between expiries are a straight visual connector between the two measured points, not a per-month forecast. We never invent a distribution for the months in between, because no markets exist there to source one from.
• How is this different from a forecast?

  Forecasts are what analysts think. The markers are what real money is betting on right now. When traders place bets, the next refresh moves the dots and band within minutes.
• Why only two markers?

  Polymarket and Kalshi list a limited set of gold expiries, typically end-of-month for the next quarter or two plus a December year-end contract. We surface every live expiry, so if one shows here the market exists today. Whichever venue is actually contributing to a given expiry is reported in the venues field on /v1/prediction-market-view.
• How often does this update?

  The market-implied markers refresh every 5 minutes against the underlying prediction markets, which trade 24/7. The historical line on the chart covers the past year of daily closes and refreshes once per day after the New York close.
• Why does the cone sometimes show only one side?

  When fewer than 5 markets pass our quality filters on one side of the cone (typically the deep-downside tail for far-dated expiries), that side reverts to a downside-coverage-unavailable mode and the chart renders a dashed reference line at the unfittable boundary instead of a fitted curve. The band is shown only on the side with sufficient data. This is honest about data sparsity rather than fitting a curve from too few points. The disclaimer field on /v1/prediction-market-view always carries the explanation, including which side of the distribution failed to fit.
• How do I get this via API?

  GET /v1/prediction-market-view/XAU?expiry=YYYY-MM-DD. Also exposed as the MCP tool get_prediction_market_view. Pro tier or higher; full schema at /docs/prediction-market-view.
• Why touch markets and not settlement markets?

  Polymarket lists "will gold touch $X by date Y?" markets — they resolve YES if gold reaches the strike at any point during the window. Kalshi lists "will gold settle above $X on date Y?" — they resolve YES only if gold's closing price on the expiry date is above the strike. The two imply different distributions: touch encodes the running maximum/minimum during the window; settle encodes the terminal price. We use touch markets primarily because Polymarket's touch listings dominate gold liquidity (~$716K vs settle's ~$77K) and span a wider expiry range (May → December). For far-dated horizons, touch and settle distributions converge, so the touch CDF is a defensible proxy for the terminal-price distribution at expiry. The settle CDF is available on the same endpoint via ?include_settlement=true; for cross-venue arbitrage where temporal alignment exists, see /v1/prediction-markets/{asset}/arb (matches Polymarket touch + Kalshi settle when dates align).
• Why doesn't the cone show data from Kalshi?

  Kalshi runs ~120 active gold metal markets, expiring weekly and monthly (currently May 4–29). The cone here shows quarterly expiries (Jun 30, Dec 31) where Polymarket has touch-market coverage; for those particular expiries, Kalshi has zero markets. Kalshi gold markets do contribute to our cross-venue arb surface (different endpoint) when temporal alignment exists with Polymarket.
• What does "confidence: high" mean?

  High means at least two venues each with at least $10K of effective liquidity. Medium is a single venue, or cross-venue but thin (<$10K on one side). Low is a single venue with thin liquidity. The flag is whatever the API returns. We render it as-is and never average across venues to mask thinness, because the whole point of the flag is to surface single-venue exposure rather than smooth it away.

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